The global economic outlook for 2012 isn't pretty

 

The economic outlook for 2012: China's growth model is flawed. Photograph: Reuters

The outlook for the global economy in 2012 is clear, but it isn't pretty: recession in Europe, anaemic growth at best in the United States, and a sharp slowdown in China and in most emerging-market economies. Asian economies are exposed to China. Latin America is exposed to lower commodity prices (as both China and the advanced economies slow). Central and Eastern Europe are exposed to the eurozone. And turmoil in the Middle East is causing serious economic risks – both there and elsewhere – as geopolitical risk remains high and thus high oil prices will constrain global growth.

At this point, a eurozone recession is certain. While its depth and length cannot be predicted, a continued credit crunch, sovereign-debt problems, lack of competitiveness, and fiscal austerity imply a serious downturn.

The US – growing at a snail's pace since 2010 – faces considerable downside risks from the eurozone crisis. It must also contend with significant fiscal drag, ongoing deleveraging in the household sector (amid weak job creation, stagnant incomes, and persistent downward pressure on real estate and financial wealth), rising inequality, and political gridlock.

Elsewhere among the major advanced economies, the United Kingdom is double dipping, as front-loaded fiscal consolidation and eurozone exposure undermine growth. In Japan, the post-earthquake recovery will fizzle out as weak governments fail to implement structural reforms.

Meanwhile, flaws in China's growth model are becoming obvious. Falling property prices are starting a chain reaction that will have a negative effect on developers, investment, and government revenue. The construction boom is starting to stall, just as net exports have become a drag on growth, owing to weakening US and especially eurozone demand. Having sought to cool the property market by reining in runaway prices, Chinese leaders will be hard put to restart growth.

They are not alone. On the policy side, the US, Europe, and Japan, too, have been postponing the serious economic, fiscal, and financial reforms that are needed to restore sustainable and balanced growth.

Private- and public-sector deleveraging in the advanced economies has barely begun, with balance sheets of households, banks and financial institutions, and local and central governments still strained. Only the high-grade corporate sector has improved. But, with so many persistent tail risks and global uncertainties weighing on final demand, and with excess capacity remaining high, owing to past over-investment in real estate in many countries and China's surge in manufacturing investment in recent years, these companies' capital spending and hiring have remained muted.

Rising inequality – owing partly to job-slashing corporate restructuring – is reducing aggregate demand further, because households, poorer individuals, and labour-income earners have a higher marginal propensity to spend than corporations, richer households, and capital-income earners. Moreover, as inequality fuels popular protest around the world, social and political instability could pose an additional risk to economic performance.

At the same time, key current-account imbalances – between the US and China (and other emerging-market economies), and within the eurozone between the core and the periphery – remain large. Orderly adjustment requires lower domestic demand in over-spending countries with large current-account deficits and lower trade surpluses in over-saving countries via nominal and real currency appreciation. To maintain growth, over-spending countries need nominal and real depreciation to improve trade balances, while surplus countries need to boost domestic demand, especially consumption.

But this adjustment of relative prices via currency movements is stalled, because surplus countries are resisting exchange-rate appreciation in favour of imposing recessionary deflation on deficit countries. The ensuing currency battles are being fought on several fronts: foreign-exchange intervention, quantitative easing, and capital controls on inflows. And, with global growth weakening further in 2012, those battles could escalate into trade wars.

Finally, policymakers are running out of options. Currency devaluation is a zero-sum game, because not all countries can depreciate and improve net exports at the same time. Monetary policy will be eased as inflation becomes a non-issue in advanced economies (and a lesser issue in emerging markets). But monetary policy is increasingly ineffective in advanced economies, where the problems stem from insolvency – and thus creditworthiness – rather than liquidity.

Meanwhile, fiscal policy is constrained by the rise of deficits and debts, bond vigilantes, and new fiscal rules in Europe. Backstopping and bailing out financial institutions is politically unpopular, while near-insolvent governments don't have the money to do so. And, politically, the promise of the G-20 has given way to the reality of the G-0: weak governments find it increasingly difficult to implement international policy coordination, as the world views, goals, and interests of advanced economies and emerging markets come into conflict.

As a result, dealing with stock imbalances – the large debts of households, financial institutions, and governments – by papering over solvency problems with financing and liquidity may eventually give way to painful and possibly disorderly restructurings. Likewise, addressing weak competitiveness and current-account imbalances requires currency adjustments that may eventually lead some members to exit the eurozone.

Restoring robust growth is difficult enough without the ever-present spectre of deleveraging and a severe shortage of policy ammunition. But that is the challenge that a fragile and unbalanced global economy faces in 2012. To paraphrase Bette Davis in All About Eve, "Fasten your seatbelts, it's going to be a bumpy year!"

 

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The cause of this recession? Economic pundits ignoring history's voice

The Queen, reported the Daily Mail, was wearing a speckled cream suit and matching hat. Her Majesty was at the London School of Economics, listening to a professor, Luis Garicano, talk about the credit crunch. "It's awful," she said suddenly. "Why did nobody see it coming?"

For three years I have pondered the Queen's question, and the answer. (LSE was institutionally flummoxed; a year later, it gave her a waffly reply, that "everyone thought they were doing the right thing," and that "wishful thinking was combined with hubris".) It resurfaced last Tuesday with the publication of the Financial Services Authority report into its own conduct of the 2008 collapse of RBS and the attendant chaos. It is like expecting the Cosa Nostra to investigate the mafia. We are all sinners, ruminated the FSA, and need forgiveness, but no one was really to blame. It is a rough old world.

Had the banking fiasco been a Russian invasion, nuclear meltdown or outbreak of plague, every expert would have faced inquisition, damning or being damned. Soldiers would have been cashiered and scientists ruined; doctors would have choked, blaming government cuts. Yet from the profession of economics and its gilded acolytes in the City, nothing but silence. The Queen's question remains on the table, its acid quietly eating into the woodwork.

The world economy is in a mess. At such times we take refuge in familiarity and choose metaphors that fit our prejudices. Last week we either opted for the slow lane of Europe's great future, or carefully declined a luxury berth on the Titanic. Britain was a dog slinking miserably from the top table, or walking proud into the sunset.

I prefer to seize the apron strings of history, following a series of articles in the New York Review of Books by the American Nobel economist Paul Krugman. For two years he and his colleague, Robin Wells, have been seeking to set current economic woes in the context of the past. They have studied previous crashes and distilled what was ordered at the time by such pundits as Keynes and Friedman. From the cliff of economic history, Krugman hacked nuggets of wisdom, many sane, most alarming. They should be wrapped in vellum and delivered to Buckingham Palace.

A year ago Krugman wrote up Reinhart and Rogoff's history of financial crashes – with the ironic title, This Time Is Different. Every crash was unpredictable because everyone thought it was unlike the last one – until found in crucial respects to be the same. Then came Jeff Madrick's The Age of Greed, with its eerie narrative of how each crash since the war had been worse than the one before and nobody noticed, and Roubini and Mihm's Crisis Economics – with Krugman admitting "outrage fatigue" amid a crescendo of gloom.

At each turn the financial gurus assert that a recession will be temporary and "different". Over the past two years each prediction, including from Britain's Office for National Statistics, has been wildly optimistic. Mathematical models have proved as useless to economics as leeches and blisters once were to medicine. As Krugman notes, whatever the evil tidings, "things have turned out considerably worse … and are running fairly close to the historical norm".

The western world is in the grip not of a blip or retrenchment, but of "the second great contraction" of modern times. It matches that of the Great Depression of the 1930s, out of which the west climbed only with the spending spree of Hitler's war. Its roots lay in the same cause, a speculative bubble (this time in housing) linked to reckless bank lending to individuals and states. That lending concealed wide imbalances between national economies.

The fact that no remedy has seemed to work has had remarkably little impact on policy. During the Depression Milton Friedman's call for an increase in money supply proved ineffective when that increase was merely hoarded by stricken banks. Thus pumping up the banks is exactly what the Bank of England is doing today: to the same minimal effect.

Likewise in the 1920s and 1930s governments that forced national budgets into balance through austerity saved their banks, but exacerbated stagnation and slump. Krugman accepts that deficit finance is more acceptable today than in the 30s, but it is as yet insufficient to stimulate real growth. Equally disastrous was forcing nations to sustain overvalued currencies in deference to the gold standard. Yet the EU is still trying to shackle the weaker European states to an overvalued currency.

There are lessons in smaller crashes, such as the 1982-3 boom in Latin American debt, the Swedish crash of 1991, or the 1997 downturn in the so-called Asian tiger economies. Latin America descended into depression and hyperinflation. Japan has yet to recover. Some things worked. Korea rescued itself by halving the value of its currency, leading to an export-led boom. Sweden nationalised, divided and recapitalised its banks.

Krugman holds strongly to the thesis that indebtedness is no enemy of growth, as creditworthy Britain showed for much of the 20th century. The task for government is to make the trade-off: how much credit to risk for how much growth. The argument between George Osborne and Ed Balls is old as the hills. Now that Osborne has established his bona fides on the credit front, the message of history is probably tilting Balls's way, towards more aggressive stimulants to demand.

The question is not what history says but who is listening. The relaxation of global regulation in the 1980s arose from the influence over government of a profession that was becoming both rich and arrogant. Bankers paid lobbyists and courted politicians. Their influence is vividly narrated in Madrick's Age of Greed, as they moved their lending into sovereign debt on the thesis that "countries don't go out of business" and were "too big to fail". It was a phrase they deftly applied to themselves when disaster struck.

This week Britain's bankers likewise persuaded David Cameron that "the national interest" required a refusal to accept or even participate in a new regulatory regime, despite such a regime being palpably needed. The same lobby resisted pressure to reduce bonuses, erect Chinese walls or adopt the recent Vickers report on bank restructuring. History is clear: as long as sectional interest overrides prudence or common sense, there is another crash.

This repeats the awful lesson offered by Seymour Hersh in his book, The Target is Destroyed. Describing events after the Russians accidentally shot down a Korean airliner in 1983, Hersh accused Washington of refusing to believe its own clear intelligence that the shooting was in error. In the grip of the cold war, the most sophisticated surveillance on earth was useless because no one wanted to believe it. Reagan's White House needed an excuse to hurl threats at Moscow. The message of economic history is similar. It can scream as loud as it likes, but if power is not listening it might as well be mute.

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What If Ron Paul wins Iowa?

Ron Paul signs an autograph after a Republican presidential debate. Photograph: Benjamin J. Myers/Corbis

Going into Thursday night's debate – and the caucuses only 21 days away – probably the only person who thinks Newt Gingrich can meet the high expectations his recent poll and debate performances have set is Newt Gingrich.

The rest of the field, and political operatives, are getting ready for a scenario that just three months ago would have seemed as far-fetched as, I don't know, Herman Cain being the front-runner: Ron Paul winning Iowa.

Among Iowa voters, Paul is the only candidate in the top tier (he's in the top tier!) that has not seen his support rise precipitously and then erode. Paul is, in fact, the only candidate that has seen his support simply grow.

This solid base, combined with Paul's Iowa organization – unlike Romney or Gingrich, he has one – put Paul in the position to pull an upset that has the potential to shake-up not just the 2012 race, but the way the GOP conducts its primaries for years to come.

Within the party, moderates and realists (these groups overlap but are not exactly the same) have been quietly making the case for years that Iowa's caucus picks wind up hurting the GOP in general elections. Though the actual caucus winners are often the eventual nominee, the social conservatives who wind up doing well in Iowa (winner Mike Huckabee, and runner-ups Pat Buchanan and Pat Robertson) reinforce stereotypes that younger Republicans especially would like the party to move away from.

A Paul win in Iowa would give GOP establishment types more ammunition in their battle to "minimize Iowa's importance". No-one will go so far, even off the record, as to say Iowa shouldn't play a part at all. Those who say that a Paul victory alone would make Iowa not count" seem to be forgetting that delegates are awarded there, whether the pundits think the winner will actually get the nomination or not.

A Paul win probably would make Iowa's results an outlier compared to the rest of the early primary states but, as one strategist I talked to put it, "Ron Paul is no Pat Robertson." A Paul win would not quite be the same as a victory by a candidate whose popularity and volunteer strength stems almost entirely from Iowa's evangelical community – Paul's support comes from libertarians and students as well Iowans who are looking for a candidate who has nothing to apologize for, no past positions that are different than the ones held today.

As far as specific issues go, another Republican whose been on the ground in Iowa pointed out that voters seem singularly focused on spending – to the exclusion of candidates' personal foibles – and those people love Paul's similar focus.

In many ways, a Paul victory would be a repudiation of the sound-bite/image-driven politics that we've come to take for granted as America's electoral lingua franca. Even if you don't agree on Paul's positions, you cannot argue that he has simplified his explanations of them in order to get off a good line. And, look at the man – he personal presentation has certainly not been focus-grouped. (Or, if it has, it's a focus group of people who still let mom pick out their clothes.) It would also be the loudest rejection possible of the GOP's de facto top-down approach to presidential nominations.

As such, Paul winning could spark an internal revolution in the party – either for elites to seize control with an even tighter grip, or for new leadership to emerge. Closer to the present, it would re-open the field: shaking Gingrich out of the top spot, putting Romney on notice in New Hampshire, and giving early state Republicans a reason to reconsider what "electability" means to them. Huntsman could be an attractive option once Romney has a bag over his head.

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IndyCar report: Dan Wheldon died when his head hit fence post

Dan Wheldon's car bursts into flames in the pile-up during the Las Vegas Indy 300. Photograph: Robert Laberge/Getty Images

Dan Wheldon was killed when his head hit a post in the fencing at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, contact that created a "non-survivable injury" to the two-time Indianapolis 500 winner.

IndyCar officials released their findings on Thursday of the 16 October accident in the season finale. Wheldon was killed in an early 15-car accident when his car launched into the catchfence.

The reports finds several factors contributed to what became a "perfect storm", and no one reason could be singled out as the sole cause of the accident. IndyCar found it is "impossible to determine with certainty that the result would have been any different if one or more of the factors did not exist."

The race had a season-high 34 cars and was held on a high-banked oval. IndyCar CEO Randy Bernard says the size of the field and the banking itself were not solely responsible for the accident.

IndyCar officials don't believe the construction of the fence at Las Vegas Motor Speedway played a role in the death of two-time Indianapolis 500 winner Dan Wheldon.

Instead, the larger factor was the wide grooves at the speedway that gave drivers a "limitless racing surface."

Las Vegas is owned by Speedway Motor Sports Inc., and the organization constructs its fences with the posts inside the wiring. IndyCar president Brian Barnhart says there is no indication Wheldon would have survived had the post been on the outside of the mesh wiring.

Wheldon, from Olney in Buckinghamshire, achieved stardom in the United States where he won the IndyCar Series – and its signature race – in 2005 and repeated his success at Indianapolis this year.

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Everton agree deal to bring Landon Donovan on loan from LA Galaxy

Landon Donovan, right, celebrates a goal for Everton by Tim Cahill against Sunderland in January 2010. Photograph: Mark Thompson/Getty Images

Everton are set to take Landon Donovan on loan for a second time after agreeing a short-term deal in principle with LA Galaxy and Major League Soccer.

A statement on the Everton website said: "The agreement reached on Thursday is pending paperwork to be finalised, and has the American international arriving to Everton over the Christmas period ahead of a two-month loan.

"He would be eligible to play in Everton's game against Bolton Wanderers on 4 January, with the loan lasting until after the Merseyside derby at Anfield on 25 February."

David Moyes was quotes as saying: "I am delighted that we have managed to get Landon back. He will give us some good experience over January and February.

"He did well for us when he was over two years ago and hopefully will return with those same qualities."

Donovan said: "The opportunity to return to Everton and play for such a well-respected club and a manager that I hold in such high regard was something that was simply too good to pass up.

"I thoroughly enjoyed my time at Everton in 2010 and I'm hopeful that we can experience similar success this time around."

Donovan scored two goals in his 10 league appearances for the club in 2010. He opted to rest last winter, following the previous summer's exertions for the USA at the World Cup, where he scored three times in four matches.

He scored the winner in the MLS Cup final last month, as LA Galaxy beat Houston Dynamo 1-0.

Everton are also interested in signing Ryan Donnelly from Cliftonville for £100,000. The striker is also attracting interest from Swansea City.

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GOP debate: expect more grenades tossed Newt Gingrich's way

Newt Gingrich: needs to play against type and show some restraint and statesmanship. Photograph: Jeff Haynes/Reuters

Tonight's GOP presidential debate is the most imortant two hours of the year in US politics. Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney and the other Republican rivals gather in Sioux City, Iowa, like the survivors of a first world war battle huddling in a trench.

One by one, the Republican candidates have gone over the top. Some barely made it out of their foxhole. But others have all made their brief bid for victory, only to be taken down by a deadly barrage from friends and enemies alike.

Tonight's debate is the last before voting starts in earnest with the Iowa caucuses on 3 January. For several of the candidates on stage it is also their last chance – in what will probably be the debate with the highest ratings of the season.

Newt Gingrich is the latest – and presumably last – of the GOP candidates to be wounded after racing into a lead in the opinion polls. Only days after Gingrich's surge showed the former speaker of the house vaulting into the forefront, his opponents starting laying landmines for him to trip over.

In particular, Mitt Romney spent much of the last debate five days ago lobbing grenades in Gingrich's direction. The pugnacious Gingrich was able to swat them away – but Romney has sharpened his attacks, helped by Gingrich hoisting himself by his own petard.

On Monday, responding to an attack by Romney for accepting huge fees from government-backed mortgage facilitator Freddie Mac, Gingrich responded bizarrely.

"I would just say that if Governor Romney would like to give back all the money he's earned from bankrupting companies and laying off employees over his years at Bain that I would be glad to then listen to him," said Gingrich, off the cuff at an event in New Hampshire.

At a stroke, Gingrich had not only punctured his self-declared positive campaign, but confirmed precisely the attacks that Romney and his surrogates had been making: that Gingrich was both unstable and – as the British say – too clever by half.

Republican presidential candidates who bash the free market's profit-making principle tend to have a short shelf life. The problem for Gingrich is that he only excites half of the Republican party. The other half, he terrifies.

A candidate-by-candidate guide to who wants what from tonight's debate:

• Newt Gingrich. Needs to play against type and show some restraint and statesmanship. Likeability is his biggest problem, and he needs to reassure nervous Republicans that he has shed his ugly image from the 1990s and that his Nutty Professor persona wouldn't get in the way of being a serious presidential candidates.

Newt wins if: he keeps smiling while dodging flak from his rivals

Newt loses if: he starts spouting about EMP and moon colonies

• Mitt Romney. Needs to make more headway in framing Gingrich as unstable and unconservative, ideally through recycling Gingrich's "bankrupting companies" charge. If he can needle Gingrich into biting back, so much the better.

Mitt wins if: he can bait Gingrich into saying something dumb

Mitt loses if: he can't defuse his previous "$10,000 bet" gaffe

• Ron Paul. Will enjoy his time in the spotlight as his poll numbers in Iowa win him new-found respect from the media. But Fox News is no friend and he should expect a few pointed questions about his views on foreign policy.

Ron wins if: he can keep talking about big government

Ron loses if: he starts talking about 9/11 and al-Qaida

• Rick Perry. Gave a solid debate performance last time and desperately needs another. Romney shouldn't be his target: he needs to steal support off Gingrich to get in the top four in the Iowa caucuses.

Rick wins if: he can bait Gingrich as effectively as he did Romney

Rick loses if: he has another debate full of flubs and gaffes

• Michele Bachmann. Has faded because her debate performances have been poor, although the last debate was an improvement with her studied "Newt Romney" line, although it didn't gain much traction. She is betting everything on Iowa and needs to fend off Perry and Rick Santorum in the battle for conservative votes.

Michele wins: by talking in detail about policies

Michele loses: by repeating the same cliches as previous debates

• Rick Santorum. Is in a mini-contest with Bachmann and, to some extent, Perry for conservative Iowa voters. He has been a good debater but his lack of airtime has choked off his chances.

Rick wins: by getting more airtime than Bachmann

Rick loses: by fading into the scenery

• Jon Huntsman. Wasn't invited to the last debate. Sadly, no one noticed or much cared he wasn't there. He is less interested in Iowa, and is instead banking on New Hampshire, but the former Utah governor is unlikely to do well there either,

Jon wins: if he can sound more than just sensible

Jon loses: if he just whines about the format

The debate is being televised on Fox News and starts at 9pm ET (2am GMT).

The Guardian will be liveblogging the debate from 8pm ET.

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What If Ron Paul wins Iowa?

Ron Paul signs an autograph after a Republican presidential debate. Photograph: Benjamin J. Myers/Corbis

Going into Thursday night's debate – and the caucuses only 21 days away – probably the only person who thinks Newt Gingrich can meet the high expectations his recent poll and debate performances have set is Newt Gingrich.

The rest of the field, and political operatives, are getting ready for a scenario that just three months ago would have seemed as far-fetched as, I don't know, Herman Cain being the front-runner: Ron Paul winning Iowa.

Among Iowa voters, Paul is the only candidate in the top tier (he's in the top tier!) that has not seen his support rise precipitously and then erode. Paul is, in fact, the only candidate that has seen his support simply grow.

This solid base, combined with Paul's Iowa organization – unlike Romney or Gingrich, he has one – put Paul in the position to pull an upset that has the potential to shake-up not just the 2012 race, but the way the GOP conducts its primaries for years to come.

Within the party, moderates and realists (these groups overlap but are not exactly the same) have been quietly making the case for years that Iowa's caucus picks wind up hurting the GOP in general elections. Though the actual caucus winners are often the eventual nominee, the social conservatives who wind up doing well in Iowa (winner Mike Huckabee, and runner-ups Pat Buchanan and Pat Robertson) reinforce stereotypes that younger Republicans especially would like the party to move away from.

A Paul win in Iowa would give GOP establishment types more ammunition in their battle to "minimize Iowa's importance". No-one will go so far, even off the record, as to say Iowa shouldn't play a part at all. Those who say that a Paul victory alone would make Iowa not count" seem to be forgetting that delegates are awarded there, whether the pundits think the winner will actually get the nomination or not.

A Paul win probably would make Iowa's results an outlier compared to the rest of the early primary states but, as one strategist I talked to put it, "Ron Paul is no Pat Robertson." A Paul win would not quite be the same as a victory by a candidate whose popularity and volunteer strength stems almost entirely from Iowa's evangelical community – Paul's support comes from libertarians and students as well Iowans who are looking for a candidate who has nothing to apologize for, no past positions that are different than the ones held today.

As far as specific issues go, another Republican whose been on the ground in Iowa pointed out that voters seem singularly focused on spending – to the exclusion of candidates' personal foibles – and those people love Paul's similar focus.

In many ways, a Paul victory would be a repudiation of the sound-bite/image-driven politics that we've come to take for granted as America's electoral lingua franca. Even if you don't agree on Paul's positions, you cannot argue that he has simplified his explanations of them in order to get off a good line. And, look at the man – he personal presentation has certainly not been focus-grouped. (Or, if it has, it's a focus group of people who still let mom pick out their clothes.) It would also be the loudest rejection possible of the GOP's de facto top-down approach to presidential nominations.

As such, Paul winning could spark an internal revolution in the party – either for elites to seize control with an even tighter grip, or for new leadership to emerge. Closer to the present, it would re-open the field: shaking Gingrich out of the top spot, putting Romney on notice in New Hampshire, and giving early state Republicans a reason to reconsider what "electability" means to them. Huntsman could be an attractive option once Romney has a bag over his head.

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Hacker who betrayed Bradley Manning expresses regret over possible jail term

Adrian Lamo said: 'The decision was not one I decided to make. It was thrust upon me.' Photograph: Jennifer S Altman/Washington Post/Getty Images

Adrian Lamo, the hacker who betrayed the alleged WikiLeaks source Bradley Manning to the US authorities, has said it would be to his "lasting regret" were the soldier to be given a lengthy custodial sentence.

Lamo, 30, dubbed the "world's most hated hacker" for his role in passing information on Manning to military intelligence after the soldier befriended him on internet chat, said that he understood that Manning was an idealistic young man who believed he could change the world for the better and "who didn't necessarily know what he was doing.

"I think about him every day. The decision was not one I decided to make, but was thrust upon me."

Lamo's comments come on the eve of the opening of a pre-trial hearing in the prosecution of Manning, who is charged with multiple counts of transferring state secrets to WikiLeaks including hundreds of thousands of US embassy cables. The hearing starts in Fort Meade, Maryland, on Friday amid exceptionally tight security.

Bradley Manning supporters hoping for an expression of remorse from Lamo ahead of the soldier's prosecution will be disappointed, however. Despite the note of regret at a possible harsh sentence for Manning – the soldier faces a maximum punishment of life in custody with no chance of parole – Lamo said he continued to be convinced that he had done the necessary thing.

"Had I done nothing, I would always have been left wondering whether the hundreds of thousands of documents that had been leaked to unknown third parties would end up costing lives, either directly or indirectly," he said.

A soldier alleged to be Bradley Manning contacted Lamo on AOL instant messaging on 21 May 2010, using the internet handle Bradass87. Lamo was known to the soldier because of his celebrity status in the hacking world having been prosecuted in 2003 for breaking into the computer network of the New York Times, for which Lamo was put on six months' house arrest.

In the course of their internet chat, later published by Wired, the soldier asked Lamo: "if you had free reign [sic] over classified networks for long periods of time, things that belonged in the public domain, what would you do?" The soldier confessed to Lamo that he had been downloading US state secrets on to a CD labelled "Lady Gaga".

Lamo took advice from two friends who had experience working with military intelligence, and, with their assistance, he passed the details of the internet conversation to the US military. On 26 May, Manning was arrested on duty at the Forward Operating Base Hammer outside Baghdad, where he was working as an intelligence officer.

For his action, Lamo was denounced by fellow hackers as a "snitch" and a traitor to the community, and was booed at the Hackers On Planet Earth conference in Manhattan in July 2010. Lamo said he also had to move home to avoid any opprobrium affecting those close to him.

But he said he was unflustered by the adverse reaction. "I'm not a politician running for re-election. I don't need to be popular among the hacker community, and I most likely will never be liked in the hacker community."

Lamo said he was taken aback by the enormous fallout from his approach to the military authorities. "At the time I was not even certain that this was newsworthy. I suppose that demonstrates a certain degree of naivety on my part."

He had thought hard, he said, about Manning's position. "I remembered what it was like to be Manning's age – 22 – that was the age that I was arrested for what I regarded as crimes of conscience. I deliberated on whether I wanted to subject someone of that age to the same process that I went through."

In the end though, he concluded that "Mr Manning's wellbeing was not as important as the security of our armed forces. I had never considered myself particularly patriotic, but when push came to shove the wellbeing of the nation was of paramount importance to me."

He said he suffered "a great deal of internal conflict" about Manning's situation when he was being held at the Quantico marine base in Virginia. The soldier was held in solitary confinement and stripped naked every night in conditions that some likened to torture.

Manning, 23, is now being held under a much more liberal regime at Fort Leavenworth in Kansas.

Lamo declined to speculate about what an appropriate sentence would be for Manning were he found guilty of the WikiLeaks charges. However, a hypothetical individual who had engaged in passing state secrets to a third party would merit a sentence of "25 to 50 years", he said.

"This is different to a James Bond film. WikiLeaks was involved in an overall weakening of strategic operations and diplomacy that will take decades to recover from," he said.

But Lamo added that he was aware of the lasting harm that he has caused. "There are times in life when you are faced with a variety of choices, none of which you consider right. All of them harm someone and you have to choose the one that harms the fewest number of people. That still leaves you harming someone, and, because of that, I think of Manning on a daily basis."

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Piers Morgan to appear before Leveson inquiry next week

Piers Morgan when he was editor of the Daily Mirror. Morgan is to appear before the Leveson inquiry into media practices. Photograph: Peter Macdiarmid/Getty Images

Piers Morgan, former editor of the Daily Mirror and the News of the World, is to appear before the Leveson inquiry next week.

His appearance was confirmed by a CNN spokeswoman in New York, where he is based for the filming of his TV chatshow Piers Morgan Tonight, who said that he would be giving testimony at some point next week.

"He's appearing next week, but we don't have a confirmed date yet," said Megan McPartland.

He is expected to be questioned about his own public statements about celebrities, phone hacking and his experience at the helm of two of the country's best-selling newspapers.

Morgan is expected to give evidence by video link from New York.

Last summer it emerged that Morgan had been lined up to take over from Larry King when the TV host retired from his nightly interview show on CNN.

At 28 Morgan was appointed editor of the News of the World, making him the youngest tabloid newspaper editor in history.

He was editor of the Daily Mirror for more than 10 years but was sacked in 2004 after the newspaper conceded that photos it published apparently showing British soldiers abusing an Iraqi were fake.

In a statement the Mirror said it had fallen victim to a "calculated and malicious hoax" and that it would be "inappropriate" for Morgan to continue.

Morgan famously claimed in a GQ magazine interview in 2007 that phone hacking was "widespread" and that "loads of newspaper journalists were doing it" when Clive Goodman and Glenn Mulcaire were jailed in January of that year.

Asked by the model Naomi Campbell in the interview whether he knew about voicemail interception while he was editor of News of the World, Morgan said: "Well, I was there in 1994-95, before mobiles were used very much, and that particular trick wasn't known about. I can't get too excited about it, I must say.

"It was pretty well known that if you didn't change your pin code when you were a celebrity who bought a new phone, then reporters could ring your mobile, tap in a standard factory setting number and hear your messages. That is not, to me, as serious as planting a bug in someone's house, which is what some people seem to think was going on."

Morgan agreed that voicemail interception was an invasion of privacy, adding: "But loads of newspaper journalists were doing it. Clive Goodman, the News of the World reporter, has been made the scapegoat for a very widespread practice."

A year earlier, in 2006, Morgan wrote an article for the Daily Mail claiming that he was played a tape of a message Paul McCartney left on the mobile phone of Heather Mills. "The couple had clearly had a tiff, Heather had fled to India, and Paul was pleading with her to come back," he said in the article. "He sounded lonely, miserable and desperate, and even sang 'We Can Work It Out' into the answerphone."

Morgan described Mills' allegation that he had listened to her voicemail messages as "unsubstantiated".

• To contact the MediaGuardian news desk email editor@mediaguardian.co.uk or phone 020 3353 3857. For all other inquiries please call the main Guardian switchboard on 020 3353 2000. If you are writing a comment for publication, please mark clearly "for publication".

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Premature baby in California third smallest in world to survive

Melinda Star Guido, now 14 weeks old, with her mother, Haydee Ibarra, at the Los Angeles medical centre on 14 December. Photograph: Jae C. Hong/AP

At birth, Melinda Star Guido was so tiny she could fit into the palm of her doctor's hand. Weighing just 9.5 ounces (269gm) she was among the smallest babies ever born in the world. Most infants her size do not survive. But doctors are now preparing to send Melinda home.

The child was born premature, at 24 weeks, last August and spent her early months cocooned in an incubator in a neonatal intensive care unit.

Almost every day, her mother, Haydee Ibarra, 22, sits at her bedside and stays overnight whenever she can.

Newborn Melinda in the neonatal intensive care unit at the Los Angeles County-USC Medical Centre. Photograph: Haydee Ibarra/AP

Melinda is believed to be the second smallest baby to survive in the US and third in the world.

During her pregnancy Ibarra suffered from high blood pressure. She was transferred from a hospital near her home to Los Angeles' flagship hospital, which is better equipped to handle high-risk pregnancies.

There was a problem with the placenta and the foetus was not getting adequate nutrition and oxygen. Doctors knew Melinda would weigh less than a pound at birth, but they were surprised at how small and fragile she was.

"The first few weeks, it was touch and go. None of us thought the baby was going to make it," said Rangasamy Ramanathan, a doctor who oversees premature infants at Los Angeles County-USC Medical Centre, where Melinda has been treated.

Doctors told Ibarra and her husband, Yovani Guido, that even if Melinda survived, children born that premature could have developmental delays and impairments such as blindness, deafness or cerebral palsy.

Ibarra told doctors to do whatever was necessary to help her baby. Ramanathan recalled: "They said, 'we'll take the chance, please try'. So we said, 'OK we'll try'."

Almost ready to go home, Melinda is now thriving. Photograph: Jae C Hong/AP

Melinda was delivered by caesarean section and transferred to an intensive care unit where a team of doctors and nurses kept watch round the clock. She was kept in an incubator, with breathing equipment and a feeding tube. Her mother said her skin felt like plastic because it was so thin.

"It takes a lot of good care and a lot of good luck. Most them don't survive," said Edward Bell, a paediatrician at the University of Iowa, who keeps an online database of the world's smallest surviving babies born weighing less than a pound (453gm).The list contains 126 babies dating back to 1936. Since submission is voluntary, it does not represent all survivors.

Ten babies weighing less than a pound were born last year and survived. Melinda joins three other tiny survivors delivered this year – in Berkeley, Iowa City, and Seoul, South Korea. All were bigger than Melinda, who is not eligible to be listed until her discharge from hospital.

Most tiny babies who survive are female. Girls mature faster than males of the same gestational age, and having more developed lungs and other vital organs, have an increased chance of survival.

Bell published a study last year, however, which reported that many survivors were struggling with health and learning problems. According to available growth data, many of the children are short and underweight for their age.

But the smallest surviving baby born – weighing 9.2 ounces – is now a healthy seven-year-old, and another, who was 9.9 ounces at birth, is an honours college student studying psychology.

Their progress was described in a study by doctors at Loyola University Medical Centre, in Illinois, and published this week in the journal Pediatrics.

In the past three years, the Los Angeles medical centre has treated two other babies with extremely low birth weight who survived, but Melinda holds the record at the hospital.

A month after she was born she was treated for an eye disorder that is common in premature babies. She faced her biggest test last month when she had surgery to close an artery that usually seals after birth.

Ibarra held Melinda for the first time after the surgery. Before that, she had been able only to touch her through the incubator. The next challenge for Melinda is learning to bottle feed.

Nine great benefits of reciting Holy Quran

·  Reading Quran and reflecting over the Noble Quran fulfils an Islamic duty.

·  learn holy quran will be a proof for us on the Day of Judgment.

·  The Noble koran online will intercede for us on the Day of Judgment.

·  Your status in this life will be raised.

·  You will be from the best of the people.

·  There are ten rewards for each letter you recite from the Noble Qur'an.

·  The reciters of the Noble Qur'an will be in the company of the noble and obedient angels.

·  Your position in Paradise is determined by the amount of Noble Qur'an you memorize in this life!

·  The Noble Qur'an will lead you to Paradise!

 

Hacker who betrayed Bradley Manning expresses regret over possible jail term

Adrian Lamo said: 'The decision was not one I decided to make. It was thrust upon me.' Photograph: Jennifer S Altman/Washington Post/Getty Images

Adrian Lamo, the hacker who betrayed the alleged WikiLeaks source Bradley Manning to the US authorities, has said it would be to his "lasting regret" were the soldier to be given a lengthy custodial sentence.

Lamo, 30, dubbed the "world's most hated hacker" for his role in passing information on Manning to military intelligence after the soldier befriended him on internet chat, said that he understood that Manning was an idealistic young man who believed he could change the world for the better and "who didn't necessarily know what he was doing.

"I think about him every day. The decision was not one I decided to make, but was thrust upon me."

Lamo's comments come on the eve of the opening of a pre-trial hearing in the prosecution of Manning, who is charged with multiple counts of transferring state secrets to WikiLeaks including hundreds of thousands of US embassy cables. The hearing starts in Fort Meade, Maryland, on Friday amid exceptionally tight security.

Bradley Manning supporters hoping for an expression of remorse from Lamo ahead of the soldier's prosecution will be disappointed, however. Despite the note of regret at a possible harsh sentence for Manning – the soldier faces a maximum punishment of life in custody with no chance of parole – Lamo said he continued to be convinced that he had done the necessary thing.

"Had I done nothing, I would always have been left wondering whether the hundreds of thousands of documents that had been leaked to unknown third parties would end up costing lives, either directly or indirectly," he said.

A soldier alleged to be Bradley Manning contacted Lamo on AOL instant messaging on 21 May 2010, using the internet handle Bradass87. Lamo was known to the soldier because of his celebrity status in the hacking world having been prosecuted in 2003 for breaking into the computer network of the New York Times, for which Lamo was put on six months' house arrest.

In the course of their internet chat, later published by Wired, the soldier asked Lamo: "if you had free reign [sic] over classified networks for long periods of time, things that belonged in the public domain, what would you do?" The soldier confessed to Lamo that he had been downloading US state secrets on to a CD labelled "Lady Gaga".

Lamo took advice from two friends who had experience working with military intelligence, and, with their assistance, he passed the details of the internet conversation to the US military. On 26 May, Manning was arrested on duty at the Forward Operating Base Hammer outside Baghdad, where he was working as an intelligence officer.

For his action, Lamo was denounced by fellow hackers as a "snitch" and a traitor to the community, and was booed at the Hackers On Planet Earth conference in Manhattan in July 2010. Lamo said he also had to move home to avoid any opprobrium affecting those close to him.

But he said he was unflustered by the adverse reaction. "I'm not a politician running for re-election. I don't need to be popular among the hacker community, and I most likely will never be liked in the hacker community."

Lamo said he was taken aback by the enormous fallout from his approach to the military authorities. "At the time I was not even certain that this was newsworthy. I suppose that demonstrates a certain degree of naivety on my part."

He had thought hard, he said, about Manning's position. "I remembered what it was like to be Manning's age – 22 – that was the age that I was arrested for what I regarded as crimes of conscience. I deliberated on whether I wanted to subject someone of that age to the same process that I went through."

In the end though, he concluded that "Mr Manning's wellbeing was not as important as the security of our armed forces. I had never considered myself particularly patriotic, but when push came to shove the wellbeing of the nation was of paramount importance to me."

He said he suffered "a great deal of internal conflict" about Manning's situation when he was being held at the Quantico marine base in Virginia. The soldier was held in solitary confinement and stripped naked every night in conditions that some likened to torture.

Manning, 23, is now being held under a much more liberal regime at Fort Leavenworth in Kansas.

Lamo declined to speculate about what an appropriate sentence would be for Manning were he found guilty of the WikiLeaks charges. However, a hypothetical individual who had engaged in passing state secrets to a third party would merit a sentence of "25 to 50 years", he said.

"This is different to a James Bond film. WikiLeaks was involved in an overall weakening of strategic operations and diplomacy that will take decades to recover from," he said.

But Lamo added that he was aware of the lasting harm that he has caused. "There are times in life when you are faced with a variety of choices, none of which you consider right. All of them harm someone and you have to choose the one that harms the fewest number of people. That still leaves you harming someone, and, because of that, I think of Manning on a daily basis."

 

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US threatens tariff war with China

European carmakers could be the ones to suffer most from China's new import tariffs. Photograph: Philippe Lopez/AFP/Getty Images

The White House has threatened China with tit-for-tat tariffs on imported goods after Beijing imposed extra costs on the importation of sport utility vehicles (SUVs) and other large cars from the US.

Commerce secretary John Bryson said a series of breaches by the Chinese this year showed they were ignoring trade rules.

The dispute began after data revealed the Chinese manufacturing sector continued to contract in December, though not by as much as in the previous month.

The HSBC/Markit purchasing managers' index hit 49 after dropping to 47.7 in November. A figure of less than 50 indicates the sector is shrinking.

Capital Economics warned that as long as new orders remained weaker than output and inventories were growing "it is hard to be too optimistic".

China's tariffs, ranging from 2% to 22%, are unlikely to inflict much pain on American carmakers, which generally manufacture most of their cars for the Chinese market inside the country. But the sabre-rattling by the Beijing administration may undermine efforts by the White House to foster an export-driven recovery.

The US has already complained that China has blocked the import of chicken parts and dumped solar panels and steel cylinders in the US in breach of international trade rules.

Bryson said: "The United States has reached a point where we cannot quietly accept China ignoring many of the trade rules. China still substantially subsidises its own companies, discriminates against foreign companies and has poor intellectual property protections."

Bryson, along with US trade representative Ron Kirk, was in China last month to address its concerns on areas ranging from software piracy to agriculture. "But we must see follow-through. We cannot rely just on words. We need timeframes and concrete results. Anything short of that will be unacceptable," Bryson said.

In reponse the Chinese claim that US carmakers benefited from massive bailouts during the banking crash that give them an unfair advantage.

The tariffs are expected to spook European firms Daimler, BMW and Fiat, which owns US carmaker Chrysler. The tariffs could hit them hard, as they produce more of their cars for export on home turf.

China's move comes as the US, increasingly frustrated by a mammoth trade deficit and what it calls unfair treatment of its major companies in China, changes its own tactics. It is building the argument that China's support for state-owned firms violates World Trade Organisation rules. It is concerned that discounted land and electricity prices and loans that can be perpetually rolled over give Chinese firms an unfair advantage.

A WTO appeals panel overturned the first American attempt to apply anti-subsidy measures against Chinese steel, sacks and tyres, but left the door open for a more nuanced case that China subsidises its state-owned sector.

"The US is getting ready to be a lot tougher on China on trade. They are doing a top-to-bottom review in Washington," said James McGregor, senior consultant for APCO Worldwide in Beijing.

"It's going to get at the whole state-owned sector and at subsidies that are hard to quantify."

The Chinese administration is concerned it will come under increasing pressure to open its doors to foreign businesses as western companies look for growth opportunities.

 

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Governor calls for suspension over drum major's hazing death

Robert Champion Sr and his wife, Pam lead a procession into the funeral service for their son, Robert. Photograph: David Goldman/AP

Florida's governor wants the president of Florida A&M University suspended amid multiple investigations spurred by a drum major's death.

Republican Rick Scott called the chairman of the FAMU board on Thursday and asked him to suspend James Ammons immediately. The board met last week and discussed suspending Ammons, but instead voted to publicly reprimand him. The board meets again Monday.

It was Scott who ordered Florida's law-enforcement agency to join an investigation into the death of Marching 100 band member Robert Champion. He died following a FAMU football game last month and hazing is suspected in his death.

State law enforcement officials said earlier this week they have opened a second investigation into possible criminal violations dealing with the band's finances.

 

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