Tonight's GOP presidential debate is the most imortant two hours of the year in US politics. Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney and the other Republican rivals gather in Sioux City, Iowa, like the survivors of a first world war battle huddling in a trench.
One by one, the Republican candidates have gone over the top. Some barely made it out of their foxhole. But others have all made their brief bid for victory, only to be taken down by a deadly barrage from friends and enemies alike.
Tonight's debate is the last before voting starts in earnest with the Iowa caucuses on 3 January. For several of the candidates on stage it is also their last chance – in what will probably be the debate with the highest ratings of the season.
Newt Gingrich is the latest – and presumably last – of the GOP candidates to be wounded after racing into a lead in the opinion polls. Only days after Gingrich's surge showed the former speaker of the house vaulting into the forefront, his opponents starting laying landmines for him to trip over.
In particular, Mitt Romney spent much of the last debate five days ago lobbing grenades in Gingrich's direction. The pugnacious Gingrich was able to swat them away – but Romney has sharpened his attacks, helped by Gingrich hoisting himself by his own petard.
On Monday, responding to an attack by Romney for accepting huge fees from government-backed mortgage facilitator Freddie Mac, Gingrich responded bizarrely.
"I would just say that if Governor Romney would like to give back all the money he's earned from bankrupting companies and laying off employees over his years at Bain that I would be glad to then listen to him," said Gingrich, off the cuff at an event in New Hampshire.
At a stroke, Gingrich had not only punctured his self-declared positive campaign, but confirmed precisely the attacks that Romney and his surrogates had been making: that Gingrich was both unstable and – as the British say – too clever by half.
Republican presidential candidates who bash the free market's profit-making principle tend to have a short shelf life. The problem for Gingrich is that he only excites half of the Republican party. The other half, he terrifies.
A candidate-by-candidate guide to who wants what from tonight's debate:
• Newt Gingrich. Needs to play against type and show some restraint and statesmanship. Likeability is his biggest problem, and he needs to reassure nervous Republicans that he has shed his ugly image from the 1990s and that his Nutty Professor persona wouldn't get in the way of being a serious presidential candidates.
Newt wins if: he keeps smiling while dodging flak from his rivals
Newt loses if: he starts spouting about EMP and moon colonies
• Mitt Romney. Needs to make more headway in framing Gingrich as unstable and unconservative, ideally through recycling Gingrich's "bankrupting companies" charge. If he can needle Gingrich into biting back, so much the better.
Mitt wins if: he can bait Gingrich into saying something dumb
Mitt loses if: he can't defuse his previous "$10,000 bet" gaffe
• Ron Paul. Will enjoy his time in the spotlight as his poll numbers in Iowa win him new-found respect from the media. But Fox News is no friend and he should expect a few pointed questions about his views on foreign policy.
Ron wins if: he can keep talking about big government
Ron loses if: he starts talking about 9/11 and al-Qaida
• Rick Perry. Gave a solid debate performance last time and desperately needs another. Romney shouldn't be his target: he needs to steal support off Gingrich to get in the top four in the Iowa caucuses.
Rick wins if: he can bait Gingrich as effectively as he did Romney
Rick loses if: he has another debate full of flubs and gaffes
• Michele Bachmann. Has faded because her debate performances have been poor, although the last debate was an improvement with her studied "Newt Romney" line, although it didn't gain much traction. She is betting everything on Iowa and needs to fend off Perry and Rick Santorum in the battle for conservative votes.
Michele wins: by talking in detail about policies
Michele loses: by repeating the same cliches as previous debates
• Rick Santorum. Is in a mini-contest with Bachmann and, to some extent, Perry for conservative Iowa voters. He has been a good debater but his lack of airtime has choked off his chances.
Rick wins: by getting more airtime than Bachmann
Rick loses: by fading into the scenery
• Jon Huntsman. Wasn't invited to the last debate. Sadly, no one noticed or much cared he wasn't there. He is less interested in Iowa, and is instead banking on New Hampshire, but the former Utah governor is unlikely to do well there either,
Jon wins: if he can sound more than just sensible
Jon loses: if he just whines about the format
The debate is being televised on Fox News and starts at 9pm ET (2am GMT).
The Guardian will be liveblogging the debate from 8pm ET.
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